PEC Zwolle 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees ADO Den Haag travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PEC Zwolle 0.80 PPG, ADO Den Haag 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for ADO Den Haag and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 64% and ADO Den Haag 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 61% | ADO Den Haag 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.825 / defence 1.145 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.749 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.776. Data: 44 PEC Zwolle games / 10 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 35%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | ADO Den Haag 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 50% | ADO Den Haag 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.65 / ADO Den Haag 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.825 / def 1.145 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.749 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.776 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.52
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag part of?
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.03
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
ADO Den Haag xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.52 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 12D 21L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 27W 4D 13L from 44 games, 1.93 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 2D 7L from 22 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 4D 13L in their last 44 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.41 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
2
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
From 3 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 46%, ADO Den Haag 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PEC Zwolle) and 68% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 68% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 35%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 61%, ADO Den Haag 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.