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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.50 xG and Willem II 0.96 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.26 / defence 1.23 against Willem II attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 70% | Draw 18% | Willem II 12%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 65%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights