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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out Waalwijk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Waalwijk 2-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.49 xG and Waalwijk 1.63 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.33 / defence 1.24 against Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 56% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 24%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights