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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.04 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 / defence 1.00 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 56% | Draw 21% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.36 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights