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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 16, as NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights