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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over NEC Nijmegen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat NEC Nijmegen 3-5 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.84 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.40 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.40 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 48% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 29%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual PSV Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 63%, PSV Eindhoven 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights