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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 21, as NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.97 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.68 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.38 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 45% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 33%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, PSV Eindhoven 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights