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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.32 xG and NAC Breda 0.93 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.30 / defence 0.91 against NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 68% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 13%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 61%, NAC Breda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

NAC Breda's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.36 PPG, NAC Breda 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights