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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 24 Aug 2025

13:30

Venue

Goffertstadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NEC Nijmegen Win

68%

NEC Nijmegen

1.48

20%

Draw

5.11

13%

NAC Breda

7.86

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.4%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.32

NEC Nijmegen xG

Total xG

3.25

0.93

NAC Breda xG

68%
20%
13%
NEC NijmegenDrawNAC Breda

1.48

68%

Home win

5.11

20%

Draw

7.86

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.81

45%

BTTS No

2.24

Clean Sheet

39%

NEC Nijmegen

2.53

10%

NAC Breda

10.19

Win to Nil

27%

NEC Nijmegen

3.74

1%

NAC Breda

80.08

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 9.0 8.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
2 10.4 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 8.1 7.5 3.5 1.1 0.3
4 4.7 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
5 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.321
λ Away (xG) 0.930
Total xG 3.251
League avg home goals 1.754
League avg away goals 1.339
NEC Nijmegen attack strength 1.297
NEC Nijmegen defence strength 0.912
NAC Breda attack strength 0.761
NAC Breda defence strength 1.020
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 36 / 36