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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 5-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.15 xG and Excelsior 1.15 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 59% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 18%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 60%, Excelsior 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Excelsior's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights