NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Cambuur travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 January 2027, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1W 7D 2L at Goffertstadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NEC Nijmegen 1.10 PPG, Cambuur 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Cambuur and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Cambuur in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 82% and Cambuur 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 73% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG and Cambuur 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.959 / defence 1.013 | Cambuur attack 1.019 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Data: 45 NEC Nijmegen games / 11 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 33% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 100% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jan 2027, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 33% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.62 / Cambuur 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.959 / def 1.013 | Cambuur attack 1.019 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Cambuur xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 11:15 on Sunday 10 January 2027 at Goffertstadion.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 33% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
33%
3.01
22%
4.49
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.53
1.90
Cambuur xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.90 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 16D 11L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.87 PPG from 45 outings (24W 12D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.56 PPG, Cambuur on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 8W 9D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.77 points per game from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 2.07 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Cambuur in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 16D 11L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.50 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2026, when Cambuur won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
From 5 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cambuur 3-0 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 86%, Cambuur at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for NEC Nijmegen and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 73% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.