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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out AZ Alkmaar 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.98 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.71 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.41 / defence 1.10 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 45% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 34%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 66%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights