🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 3-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.86 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.69 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.27 / defence 1.17 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 42% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 35%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights