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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC finished level at 2-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG and Almere City FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.60 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 16%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights