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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Ajax share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 17, as NEC Nijmegen and Ajax drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.48 xG and Ajax 1.86 xG, a combined 4.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.42 / defence 1.00 against Ajax attack 1.31 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 19% | Ajax 29%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 66%, Ajax 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights