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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NAC Breda and Twente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as NAC Breda and Twente drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.01 xG and Twente 1.53 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Twente attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 25% | Draw 26% | Twente 49%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 52%, Twente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Twente's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights