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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sun 5 Apr 2026

15:45

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NAC Breda Win

42%

NAC Breda

2.40

27%

Draw

3.76

32%

Sparta Rotterdam

3.15

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.9%

Home win

1 – 2

7.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

3.24

1.50

Sparta Rotterdam xG

42%
27%
32%
NAC BredaDrawSparta Rotterdam

2.40

42%

Home win

3.76

27%

Draw

3.15

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.92

Clean Sheet

22%

NAC Breda

4.50

18%

Sparta Rotterdam

5.69

Win to Nil

9%

NAC Breda

10.78

6%

Sparta Rotterdam

17.92

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 5.9 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.3
1 6.8 10.2 7.7 3.8 1.4 0.4
2 5.9 8.9 6.7 3.3 1.3 0.4
3 3.4 5.1 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.738
λ Away (xG) 1.503
Total xG 3.241
League avg home goals 1.721
League avg away goals 1.305
NAC Breda attack strength 0.903
NAC Breda defence strength 1.191
Sparta Rotterdam attack strength 0.967
Sparta Rotterdam defence strength 1.118
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62