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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.09 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 36% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, Sparta Rotterdam 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.44 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights