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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Fri 7 Mar 2025

19:00

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NAC Breda Win

36%

NAC Breda

2.78

31%

Draw

3.27

33%

Sparta Rotterdam

2.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.9%

Home win

0 – 1

12.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.09

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

2.13

1.04

Sparta Rotterdam xG

36%
31%
33%
NAC BredaDrawSparta Rotterdam

2.78

36%

Home win

3.27

31%

Draw

2.99

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

63%

Over 1.5

1.59

37%

Under 1.5

2.70

36%

Over 2.5

2.78

64%

Under 2.5

1.56

17%

Over 3.5

5.88

83%

Under 3.5

1.20

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.30

57%

BTTS No

1.77

Clean Sheet

35%

NAC Breda

2.83

34%

Sparta Rotterdam

2.98

Win to Nil

13%

NAC Breda

7.89

11%

Sparta Rotterdam

8.90

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.8 12.3 6.4 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 12.9 13.5 7.0 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 7.1 7.3 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.091
λ Away (xG) 1.042
Total xG 2.133
League avg home goals 1.685
League avg away goals 1.276
NAC Breda attack strength 0.757
NAC Breda defence strength 1.063
Sparta Rotterdam attack strength 0.768
Sparta Rotterdam defence strength 0.855
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 24 / 58