NAC Breda 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, PEC Zwolle are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, PEC Zwolle in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: NAC Breda 1W, PEC Zwolle 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 60% versus PEC Zwolle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | PEC Zwolle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.45 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.816 / defence 0.996 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.980 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.456. Data: 42 NAC Breda games / 42 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.45 / PEC Zwolle 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.816 / def 0.996 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.980 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.42
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle part of?
NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 38% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.82x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.98x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
38%
2.62
25%
4.01
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.87
1.42
PEC Zwolle xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.42 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 10D 22L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 12W 12D 18L from 42 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.14 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 8D 9L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or PEC Zwolle away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.43 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
4
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for NAC Breda, 62% for PEC Zwolle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 52% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of NAC Breda's recent games and 52% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.45 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.42 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 38% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, PEC Zwolle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.95 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.