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Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Heracles 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda beat Heracles 2-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.79 xG and Heracles 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 59% | Draw 23% | Heracles 18%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, Heracles 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.95 PPG, Heracles 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights