NAC Breda 2-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Heracles at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Heracles have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 0.60 PPG versus Heracles's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Heracles have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for NAC Breda.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Heracles have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Heracles in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 56% versus Heracles 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | Heracles 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.79 xG and Heracles 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.836 / defence 0.923 | Heracles attack 0.670 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.396. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 NAC Breda games / 39 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 59% | Draw 23% | Heracles 18%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Heracles 5.56. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 80% | Heracles 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 59% | Draw 23% | Heracles 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG NAC Breda 1.79 / Heracles 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.836 / def 0.923 | Heracles attack 0.670 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Heracles xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heracles kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heracles kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
NAC Breda 2 - 1 Heracles.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heracles part of?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 59% chance of winning, Heracles a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both NAC Breda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Heracles 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.84) and Heracles's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.36
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
Heracles xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
33.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.86 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 10D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.97 PPG from 39 outings (9W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.95 PPG, Heracles on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (3W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.13 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heracles away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.42 PPG; Heracles away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 68%, Heracles 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (NAC Breda) and 58% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Heracles in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 42% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of NAC Breda's recent games and 58% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Heracles tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Heracles in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Heracles 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Heracles 2-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.79 xG and Heracles 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 59% | Draw 23% | Heracles 18%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, Heracles 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.95 PPG, Heracles 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.