NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Heracles at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heracles have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.00 PPG versus Heracles's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Heracles have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for NAC Breda.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Heracles winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Heracles have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Heracles in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 63% versus Heracles 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 61% | Heracles 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.68 xG and Heracles 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.877 / defence 1.235 | Heracles attack 0.826 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.333. Data: 20 NAC Breda games / 54 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 24% | Heracles 31%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 3.23. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | Heracles 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 24% | Heracles 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG NAC Breda 1.68 / Heracles 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.877 / def 1.235 | Heracles attack 0.826 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Heracles xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heracles kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Heracles.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heracles part of?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 45% chance of winning, Heracles a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both NAC Breda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.88) and Heracles's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.18
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.04
1.36
Heracles xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.36 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 11D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.98 PPG from 54 outings (13W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 13W 5D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.69 points per game from 26 outings (5W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.19 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 23W 11D 20L in their last 54 games (1.48 PPG), while Heracles have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heracles away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.69 PPG; Heracles away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 65%, Heracles 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NAC Breda and 65% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 42% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of Heracles's.
Do NAC Breda and Heracles tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Heracles in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as NAC Breda and Heracles drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.68 xG and Heracles 1.36 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Heracles attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 45% | Draw 24% | Heracles 31%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 61%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.