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NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda beat Heerenveen 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Heerenveen attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Heerenveen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights