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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

13:30

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Heerenveen Win

28%

NAC Breda

3.62

32%

Draw

3.09

40%

Heerenveen

2.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.5%

Away win

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.25

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

2.77

1.52

Heerenveen xG

28%
32%
40%
NAC BredaDrawHeerenveen

3.62

28%

Home win

3.09

32%

Draw

2.50

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.46

Clean Sheet

22%

NAC Breda

4.58

29%

Heerenveen

3.48

Win to Nil

6%

NAC Breda

16.55

11%

Heerenveen

8.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 9.5 7.3 3.7 1.4 0.4
1 7.8 11.9 9.1 4.6 1.7 0.5
2 4.9 7.4 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.3
3 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1
4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.248
λ Away (xG) 1.521
Total xG 2.769
League avg home goals 1.708
League avg away goals 1.302
NAC Breda attack strength 0.733
NAC Breda defence strength 1.090
Heerenveen attack strength 1.072
Heerenveen defence strength 0.997
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66