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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat NAC Breda 2-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.95 xG and Heerenveen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Heerenveen attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 63% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 16%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Heerenveen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.51 PPG, Heerenveen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights