NAC Breda 1-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Groningen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Groningen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, Groningen 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 58% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 54% | Groningen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.60 xG and Groningen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.841 / defence 0.934 | Groningen attack 0.894 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.418. Data: 41 NAC Breda games / 41 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 47% | Draw 25% | Groningen 28%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 3.57. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 47% | Draw 25% | Groningen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG NAC Breda 1.60 / Groningen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.841 / def 0.934 | Groningen attack 0.894 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Groningen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Groningen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Groningen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Groningen part of?
NAC Breda vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 47% chance of winning, Groningen a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NAC Breda and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 2 | Groningen 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.84x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.04
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.78
1.18
Groningen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.18 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 10D 21L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 14W 9D 18L from 41 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.98 PPG, Groningen on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 3D 14L from 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.27 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Groningen have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Groningen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.50 PPG; Groningen away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Groningen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 70%, Groningen at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 60% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 60% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 60% of Groningen's.
Do NAC Breda and Groningen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Groningen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.60 xG and Groningen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Groningen attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 47% | Draw 25% | Groningen 28%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 54%, Groningen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.98 PPG, Groningen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.