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Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out FC Volendam 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NAC Breda beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against FC Volendam attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights