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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Fri 6 Feb 2026

19:00

Venue

Rat Verlegh Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NAC Breda Win

51%

NAC Breda

1.98

24%

Draw

4.19

26%

Excelsior

3.92

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.71

NAC Breda xG

Total xG

2.86

1.15

Excelsior xG

51%
24%
26%
NAC BredaDrawExcelsior

1.98

51%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

3.92

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.27

Clean Sheet

32%

NAC Breda

3.15

18%

Excelsior

5.54

Win to Nil

16%

NAC Breda

6.22

5%

Excelsior

21.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7 6.6 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 9.8 11.3 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.2
2 8.4 9.6 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 4.8 5.5 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.1 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.712
λ Away (xG) 1.147
Total xG 2.859
League avg home goals 1.648
League avg away goals 1.420
NAC Breda attack strength 0.891
NAC Breda defence strength 1.090
Excelsior attack strength 0.741
Excelsior defence strength 1.165
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 21