Heracles 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Heracles welcome Waalwijk to Asito Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Asito Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Heracles have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Heracles, 2 for Waalwijk and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Waalwijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 67% | Waalwijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.948 / defence 1.143 | Waalwijk attack 0.921 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.256. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Heracles games / 46 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 59% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Waalwijk 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 40% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 59% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 2.29 / Waalwijk 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.948 / def 1.143 | Waalwijk attack 0.921 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Heracles (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Waalwijk xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heracles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Heracles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Waalwijk part of?
Heracles vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 59% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
59%
1.69
20%
5.10
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.61
1.32
Waalwijk xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
2%
46.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Heracles and 1.32 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 9D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.72 PPG from 46 outings (8W 9D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.98 PPG, Waalwijk on 0.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.50 points per game from 22 outings (3W 2D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.04 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 12W 9D 25L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 9D 29L in their last 46 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Waalwijk away?
Heracles's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.23 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, Waalwijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Heracles and 59% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 32% of games; Waalwijk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Heracles's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heracles and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.32 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.45, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 59% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 21%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 67%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.98 PPG, Waalwijk 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.