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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heracles and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles and Utrecht finished level at 1-1 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.28 xG and Utrecht 2.01 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Utrecht attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 24% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 54%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 65%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights