🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Utrecht (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Utrecht.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Heracles host Utrecht at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Heracles's home record at Asito Stadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Utrecht — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Utrecht have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Utrecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Heracles's 1 victories.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.

It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Heracles in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Utrecht in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus Utrecht 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 65% | Utrecht 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.28 xG and Utrecht 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.948 / defence 1.122 | Utrecht attack 1.366 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.312. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Heracles games / 53 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Heracles 24% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 54%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Utrecht 1.85. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | Utrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights