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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Heracles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.40 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.86 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 29% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 48%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heracles 0.95 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights