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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam finished level at 1-1 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.42 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 41% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heracles 0.94 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights