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Heracles cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 4-2 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.68 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.29 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 29%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 63%, PEC Zwolle 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights