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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 1-4 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.54 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 42% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 30%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 57%, NEC Nijmegen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heracles 1.09 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights