Heracles 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 56%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Heracles welcome NAC Breda to Asito Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadion, Heracles have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Heracles's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Heracles, 0 for NAC Breda and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus NAC Breda 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 70% | NAC Breda 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.91 xG and NAC Breda 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.962 / defence 1.250 | NAC Breda attack 0.728 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.236. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Heracles games / 10 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 56% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 22%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | NAC Breda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 56% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Heracles 1.91 / NAC Breda 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.962 / def 1.250 | NAC Breda attack 0.728 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Heracles (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.13
NAC Breda xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs NAC Breda kick off?
Heracles vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Heracles 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Heracles vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs NAC Breda part of?
Heracles vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 56% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heracles's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.51
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.04
1.13
NAC Breda xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
3%
30.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Heracles and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Heracles and 1.13 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 11W 9D 24L from 44 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 14L across 44 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 6W 6D 9L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.73 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 games (0.95 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 10D 14L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.14 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and NAC Breda?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, NAC Breda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 62% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 57% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 62% of NAC Breda's.
Do Heracles and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.91 xG and NAC Breda 1.13 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 56% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 22%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 70%, NAC Breda 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.