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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heracles and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Heracles and Excelsior drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.41 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 40% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 32%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, Excelsior 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights