🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out AZ Alkmaar 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.81 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heracles 42% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 35%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 61%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heracles's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights