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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Willem II 3-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.98 xG and Willem II 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Willem II attack 0.65 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 63% | Draw 21% | Willem II 15%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 62%, Willem II 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights