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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen and Twente share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen and Twente finished level at 3-3 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.52 xG and Twente 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Twente outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Twente attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 45% | Draw 25% | Twente 29%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 63%, Twente 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Twente's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights