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Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Sparta Rotterdam 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.82 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.63 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 43% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 35%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 62%, Sparta Rotterdam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.28 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights