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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat PEC Zwolle 4-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.18 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 1.38, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 53% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 26%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 61%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.27 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights