🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out NEC Nijmegen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.62 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NEC Nijmegen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.70 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 53% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 21%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 64%, NEC Nijmegen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.16 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights