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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen and NAC Breda finished level at 3-3 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 52% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 25%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 60%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.28 PPG, NAC Breda 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights