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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Fri 24 Oct 2025

19:00

Venue

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Heerenveen Win

52%

Heerenveen

1.91

23%

Draw

4.36

25%

NAC Breda

4.05

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.83

Heerenveen xG

Total xG

3.01

1.19

NAC Breda xG

52%
23%
25%
HeerenveenDrawNAC Breda

1.91

52%

Home win

4.36

23%

Draw

4.05

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.40

Clean Sheet

31%

Heerenveen

3.28

16%

NAC Breda

6.22

Win to Nil

16%

Heerenveen

6.26

4%

NAC Breda

25.15

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 5.8 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 9.0 10.6 6.3 2.5 0.7 0.2
2 8.2 9.7 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 5.0 5.9 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.3 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.827
λ Away (xG) 1.187
Total xG 3.014
League avg home goals 1.658
League avg away goals 1.548
Heerenveen attack strength 1.017
Heerenveen defence strength 0.983
NAC Breda attack strength 0.780
NAC Breda defence strength 1.083
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43