🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Heerenveen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Heracles 4-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.77 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Heracles attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 73% | Draw 17% | Heracles 10%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 64%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights