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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen and Heracles finished level at 1-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.15 xG and Heracles 0.92 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 65% | Draw 20% | Heracles 15%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 64%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.14 PPG, Heracles 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights