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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

20:00

Venue

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Heerenveen Win

65%

Heerenveen

1.53

20%

Draw

5.02

15%

Heracles

6.73

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.15

Heerenveen xG

Total xG

3.06

0.92

Heracles xG

65%
20%
15%
HeerenveenDrawHeracles

1.53

65%

Home win

5.02

20%

Draw

6.73

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.88

47%

BTTS No

2.14

Clean Sheet

40%

Heerenveen

2.51

12%

Heracles

8.54

Win to Nil

26%

Heerenveen

3.85

2%

Heracles

57.52

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 10.0 9.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
2 10.7 9.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 7.7 7.1 3.2 1.0 0.2
4 4.1 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
5 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.145
λ Away (xG) 0.920
Total xG 3.065
League avg home goals 1.618
League avg away goals 1.274
Heerenveen attack strength 1.103
Heerenveen defence strength 1.000
Heracles attack strength 0.722
Heracles defence strength 1.203
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59