🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Fortuna Sittard 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.13 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.37 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 52% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 22%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 66%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.36 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights